Revised GDP lowers South Africa’s debt ratio: what Treasury says

South Africa’s debt looks lighter on paper after a statistical update to the size of the economy. National Treasury said on Thursday that it had recalculated its main fiscal ratios using the revised GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), according to SAnews.

Why the numbers changed

On 29 October 2026, Stats SA announced its rebasing and benchmarking of GDP data. The exercise raised the measured level of nominal GDP by 5.1%, or about R393 billion. Because government debt and the deficit are expressed as a share of GDP, a larger economy on paper makes those ratios smaller.

The revised figures at a glance

• Debt peak: 74.6% of GDP in 2025/26, compared with 78.4% in the Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS).
• Main budget deficit (2026/27): 3.5% of GDP, down from 3.7%.
• Primary surplus (2026/27): 1.6% of GDP, compared with 1.7%.
• Primary surplus (2029/30): 2.8% of GDP, compared with 2.9%.
• Debt below 70%: now expected in 2032/33, one year earlier than the MTBPS forecast.

Treasury said the consolidated budget deficit improves by an average of 0.2 percentage points of GDP over the current year and the medium term. The main budget primary surplus, by contrast, is revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points.

What Treasury said

Treasury Director-General Duncan Pieterse said government continues to meet its fiscal targets and that the indicators look even better than projected. Treasury linked the outcome to lower borrowing costs and a stronger base for investment and growth.

What this means for you

• The improvement comes from measuring the economy differently, so it does not by itself mean more money for services or jobs.
• This is Treasury’s own assessment, so it is worth watching how analysts respond.
• Updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections will follow in the 2027 Budget.

Source: SAnews. Summarised and rewritten by SA Job Central.